Fear Mongers in High Places

In February 2012 Gen. Martin Dempsey, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, declared, “I can’t impress upon you [enough] that in my personal military judgment, formed over 38 years, we are living in the most dangerous time in my lifetime, right now.”

One year later, he upped the ante: “I will personally attest to the fact that [the world is] more dangerous than it has ever been.” But General Dempsey is hardly alone. Dire warnings about our uniquely dangerous world are ubiquitous. Director of National Intelligence James Clapper testified in early 2014 that he had “not experienced a time when we’ve been beset by more crises and threats around the globe.”

Members of Congress agree. Sen. John McCain (R-AZ), born before World War II, explained in July 2014 that the world is “in greater turmoil than at any time in my lifetime.”

This lead to a Cato Institute article by Christopher A. Preble points out how leaders at the highest levels of American government are making statements about international security that directly contradict what data set after data set make clear: We live in the safest times in history.

Despite what the incessant barrage of bad news may portray, war, civil wars, armed conflicts, murder and violent crime are down nearly everywhere. Terrorism is less deadly today than it was before 9/11. There has been a recent uptick in war-related violence, because of Syria and ISIS, but these numbers don’t come close to negating the gains since WWII and, especially, the 90s and aughties.

I can only hope that Dempsey, Clapper and McCain were exaggerating for political effect. My deeper fear is that these men really do think we live in more dangerous times. If they don’t understand the forces that have caused this historically unprecedented peace–Steven Pinker’s The Better Angels of Our Nature gives an excellent explanation of the causes–then will they not build on this success?

Our leaders must understand reality–and our reality looks very good in many ways–but statements from Dempsey, Clapper and McCain make me fear for our gains and progress.

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