More People, Fewer Famines

As I’ve written in earlier posts, the Malthusian Trap–known in recent decades as “The Population Bomb”–is not a trap…and if it’s a bomb, the bomb’s a dud. Max Roser’s graph shows how famine has declined in recent decades.

The-number-of-Famine-Victims-by-Decade_Max-Roser

 

http://ourworldindata.org/VisualHistoryOf/Hunger.html#/title-slide

“One of the many reasons for declining food crises is increasing food trade – shocks to local food markets (due to weather or plant diseases) are thereby absorbed.

“As these shocks to food markets will be reflected in price changes (volatility) one can study the increasing resilience by looking at the decreasing volatility over time.” 

In a recent online argument with an anti-GMer, we sparred regarding whether or not GM foods have a bigger yield than organic or permaculture foods. He argued that yield wasn’t important because we have enough food, it’s just a distribution problem. I countered that this was because food has become so abundant in most places that people can afford to let it rot. Additionally, as people become wealthier they’ll eat more meat. That’s what’s happened as affluence has spread. I’m a vegetarian so I’m not even in favor of more meat consumption. It’s an economic inevitable barring some major change in norms regarding eating meat.

Now I don’t like it if a single piece of food to rot, but this problem of abundance is a higher class of problems. Modern famines are caused more by governments not allowing its citizens access to food more than anything else. And yes, there are distribution problems, caused (again) by oppressive or incompetent governments. Freer markets and better governance are important trends that mean famines are becoming less and less common. 

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