Is Progress Inevitable?

Of course not. Getting Better Blog highlights the improvements that have happened, not what will inevitably happen. History is a story of progress and regress, often at the same time. History is stories about the past that humans create based on evidence, analysis, impressions and even projections.

I am most interested in seeing what successes and failures are happening. What I see are more successes than failures, more positive feedback loops working for rather against human health, prosperity and happiness. Yes, anti-gay laws are worsening in places like Nigeria and Russia, but I believe that in most of the world LGBT laws are moving in a positive direction.

And there are things that are clearly getting worse, like habitat destruction, human caused global climate change, overfishing, coral reef bleaching, and so on. Things are getting worse on many environmental fronts.

And finally, we cannot predict the future, period. We could not predict Hitler or the fall of the Berlin Wall. We could not predict the discovery of penicillin or the outbreak of HIV/AIDS. We don’t know what will happen. There are great books about our inability to predict the future, like Nasim Taleb’s popular book The Black Swan.

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